Risks faced by Monte Nublado and Monte Fresco natural formations
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Abstract
Studying the impacts of climate change on unique ecosystems such as the Monte Nublado and Monte Fresco forest formations in Cuba is crucial for biodiversity conservation and adaptation strategy planning. This study aimed to assess the future risks these formations face due to rising temperatures, using climate scenarios generated by the Cuban Meteorological Institute at a resolution of 25 x 25 km. Minimum and maximum temperature data for the periods 2030, 2050, and 2075, adjusted for altitude, were analyzed and compared with the reference period (1990–2003). The results showed a significant increase in temperature, with projections indicating an increase of up to 3.11°C by 2075. This could lead to altitudinal shifts in species, particularly threatening Monte Fresco, which could disappear after 2050 due to lack of space for migration. Monte Nublado, although more resilient, is expected to face a 40-47% reduction in its current area. It is concluded that the high level of endemism of these formations hinders their conservation, and therefore the use of information technologies to document and preserve their biodiversity is recommended, as well as the reclassification of these areas as Special Management Forests to prevent extractive activities and promote research and conservation.
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