Current risk of climate-induced dieback of forest for Cuba
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Abstract
The study of Climate-induced dieback (CID) is crucial for Cuba due to the marked vulnerability of its forests to climate change. This work aimed to assess the current CID risk at the municipal level as a basis for an early warning system. Rainfall series from the periods 1970-2010 and 1991-2020 were used to calculate the hazard (accumulated rainfall December-April), and forest vulnerability was determined using a weighted average that considered the area occupied by each species and natural formations, classified according to their basic density and growth rate. The results showed that, when comparing the most recent series with the historical data, there was an overall reduction in risk, with the number of municipalities at extreme risk decreasing from 28 to 21. This improvement was attributed to an increase in rainfall. However, 21 municipalities remained at extreme risk, concentrated mainly in the provinces of Las Tunas, Ciego de Ávila, and Sancti Spíritus. It was concluded that forest vulnerability, determined by its composition, is a decisive factor in risk, and that the most effective adaptation measure is to modify this composition toward slow-growing native species with high wood density to sustainably reduce vulnerability.
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