Expected impact of climate change to the regressive death for the forests of the municipality of Guantanamo, Cuba
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Climate dieback, defined as the death of trees in numbers far exceeding normal mortality levels, has recently been documented as a consequence of drought and heat and reported among the impacts of climate change. To identify the risk of climate dieback facing the forests of the Guantánamo municipality, a Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk assessment was conducted. As a complement to this assessment, the future behavior of temperature and precipitation variables was analyzed using future climate scenarios and the expected future evolution for that municipality throughout the 21st century. The results showed a trend toward increasing temperature (up to 28.47°C by 2075) and a moderate increase in precipitation, which remained below the national average, constituting a very high-risk scenario. Under these conditions, softwood or fast-growing species (Groups 2 and 3) presented a very high risk of climate dieback, which was projected to persist until 2075. More than 56% of the planted area, dominated by Leucaena leucocephala, Pinus cubensis, and Pinus tropicalis, was found to be at high risk. It was concluded that the municipality's forests are extremely vulnerable, and adaptation measures such as the replacement of vulnerable species and the implementation of a climate early warning system were recommended.
Downloads
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Those authors who have publications with this journal accept the following terms of the License Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0):
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
The journal is not responsible for the opinions and concepts expressed in the works, they are the sole responsibility of the authors. The Editor, with the assistance of the Editorial Committee, reserves the right to suggest or request advisable or necessary modifications. They are accepted to publish original scientific papers, research results of interest that have not been published or sent to another journal for the same purpose.
The mention of trademarks of equipment, instruments or specific materials is for identification purposes, and there is no promotional commitment in relation to them, neither by the authors nor by the publisher.
How to Cite
References
Acevedo, P., & Strong, M. T. (2012). Catalogue of Seed Plants of the West Indies. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press.
Allen, C. D. (2009). Muerte regresiva del bosque inducida por el clima: ¿un fenómeno mundial en aumento? Unasylva, 60(231/232), 43-49.
Álvarez, A., Martínez, M., Hernández, J., & Fernández, A. (2025). Riesgo actual de muerte regresiva climática para Cuba (p. 17) [Informe Técnico]. Inst. Invest. Agroforestales.
Álvarez, A., & Mercadet, A. (2011). Muerte regresiva del bosque: Principales riesgos para Cuba. En Impactos y adaptación al cambio climático en el Sector Forestal Cubano: Sexta aproximación (pp. 140-152). Instituto de Investigaciones Agroforestales.
Álvarez, A., Mercadet, A., & Peña, Y. (2019). Elaboración y puesta a punto de la versión 4.00 del sistema automatizado SUMFOR (p. 56) [Informe Técnico]. Instituto de Investigaciones Agroforestales.
Angert, A., Biraud, S., Bonfils, C., Henning, C. C., Buermann, W., Pinzon, J., Tucker, C. J., & Fung, I. (2005). Drier summers cancel out the CO2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 102(31), 10823-10827.
Bezanilla, A. (2024). Escenarios climáticos RCP 8.5 para la región suroriental de Cuba (p. 5). Instituto de Meteorología.
Bisse, J. (1988). Árboles de Cuba. Ed. Científico-Técnica.
DFFFS. (2022). Dinámica del Patrimonio Forestal: Año 2021 [Base de datos en formato digital]. Dirección Forestal de Flora y Fauna Silvestre. MINAG.
EcuRed. (2021). Guantánamo (Guantánamo). https://www.ecured.cu/index.php?title=Guant%C3%A1namo_(Guant%C3%A1namo)&oldid=3933775
EcuRed. (2024). Guantánamo (municipio). https://www.ecured.cu/index.php?title=Guant%C3%A1namo_(municipio)&oldid=4504892
García, J. A., Bécquer, E. R., Gómez, J. L., & González, L. R. (Eds.). (2024). Catálogo de las Plantas de Cuba. Planta! - Plantlife Conservation Society. https://doi.org/10.70925/cat
González, L. R., Palmarola, A., González, L., Bécquer, E. R., Testé, E., & Barrios, D. (2016). Lista roja de la flora de Cuba. En Bissea (Vol. 10).
Hechavarría, O. (2007). Contribución del estudio de la fenología a la conservación de tres especies forestales arbóreas en Topes de Collantes [PhD Thesis]. Universidad de Pinar del Río, Facultad de Forestal y Agronomía, Dpto. Forestal.
INSMET. (2009a). Registros meteorológicos del periodo 1990-2004 [Registro digital. 2009]. Instituto de Meteorología, CITMA.
INSMET. (2009b). Temperaturas medias históricas provinciales para el período 1979-2000 [Registro digital. 2009]. Instituto de Meteorología, CITMA.
Jarvis, A., Lane, A., & Hijmans, R. J. (2008). The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 126(1), 13-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.013
McDowell, N., Pockman, W. T., Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N., Kolg, T., Sperry, J., West, A., Williams, D., & Yepez, E. A. (2008). Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: Why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought? New Phytologist, 178, 719-739.
Mercadet, A. (2000). Base de datos sobre crecimiento de especies forestales arbóreas existentes en Cuba. Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales.
Planos, E., Rivero, R., & Guevara, A. V. (2013). Impactos del cambio climático y medidas de adaptación en Cuba. Instituto de Meteorología, Agencia de Medio Ambiente, Ministerio de Ciencia, Ambiente y Tecnología.
Scholes, R., Settele, J., Betts, R., Bunn, S., Leadley, P., Nepstad, D., Overpeck, J., & Taboada, M. A. (2013). Ecosistemas Terrestres y de Agua Dulce. En Contribución del Grupo de Trabajo II al Quinto Informe de Evaluación del IPCC (p. 34). IPCC.
Soja, A. J., Tchekoba, N. M., French, N. H. F., Flannigan, M. D., Shugart, H. H., Stocks, B. J., Shukinin, A. I., Varfenova, E. I., Chapin, F. S., & Stackhouse, P. W. (2007). Climate-induce boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations. Global and Planetary Change, 56(3-4), 274-296.