Trend of the forests of the municipality of San Antonio del Sur towards climatic dieback
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Abstract
Assessing forest vulnerability to climate change is crucial for ecosystem conservation. This study aimed to identify the risk of climate dieback (CDM) in the forests of the municipality of San Antonio del Sur, Cuba, by characterizing temperature and precipitation patterns. The hazard, vulnerability, and risk (HVR) methodology was employed, using historical climate data (1990-2004) and future scenarios (2030, 2050, 2075) from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology. Species vulnerability was determined based on basic wood density and growth rate. The results projected a progressive increase in temperature and an increase in precipitation, which remains below the national average, placing the municipality at a Very High Risk level. The risk assessment determined that species with soft or fast-growing wood (e.g., Leucaena leucocephala, Hibiscus elatus) face a high or very high risk of dieback from the present until 2075. It is concluded that the municipality's forests have a high tendency toward dieback, requiring the urgent implementation of adaptation measures, such as an early warning system and the replacement of vulnerable species in reforestation programs.
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